Modeling and Forecasting Road Traffic Accident of Addis Ababa Using Self Excited Threshold Autoregressive Model

Abstract

Road traffic accidents are one of the leading causes of injuries and death in both developed and developing countries. According to World Health Organization(WHO), 1.35 million people die each year as a result of road traffic accidents globally. Ethiopia is one of the developing countries and at least 114 people die for every 10,000 vehicle accidents annually. Addis Ababa is a capital city of the federal government of Ethiopia and the road traffic accidents (RTA) occurring from time to time. Assessing the trend of road traffic and forecasting were used to make the appropriate planning for control and prevention of the accidents in upcoming years. Therefore, this study focuses on statistical analysis of road traffic accident using Self-Excited Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR) time series model. The two-regime SETAR model was adopted to accommodate non-linearity. The results show that nonlinear SETAR (2,8,8) model  forecast road traffic accident. The out sample forecasted value indicates that, road traffic accident has an increasing trend over the forecasted period from January 2017 to December 2018.