Forecasting Climate Variability and Staple Food Prices in Nigeria: Evidence from ARIMA Modelling

Abstract

Climate variability poses increasing risks to agricultural productivity and food price stability in sub-Saharan Africa. This study forecasts climate indicators and staple food prices in Nigeria using annual time-series data from 1991 to 2024. The analysis focuses on minimum temperature, maximum temperature, annual rainfall, and selected staple food prices (yams, garri, rice, and maize). Stationarity of the series was examined using the Augmented Dickey–Fuller test, and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were employed to generate projections for 2024–2034. The results indicate that all variables are integrated of order one and adequately modelled using ARIMA specifications. Forecasts reveal a sustained upward trend in staple food prices over the next decade, with rice projected to experience the largest increase, followed by yams and maize. Garri prices show relatively moderate but consistent growth. Climate projections indicate a steady rise in both minimum and maximum temperatures, alongside a modest increase in annual rainfall. The projected temperature growth suggests intensifying thermal stress, which may offset potential benefits from marginal increases in rainfall and contribute to future food price pressures. The findings highlight a likely convergence of rising temperatures and persistent food price inflation, with significant implications for food security and macroeconomic stability in Nigeria. The study underscores the importance of climate-smart agriculture, improved storage infrastructure, and forward-looking food policy planning to mitigate emerging risks. These projections provide an evidence-based baseline to inform national adaptation and market stabilization strategies.