The Impact of the Russia–Ukraine War on the Indian Economy

Abstract

The war between Russia and Ukraine, starting in February 2022, has had measurable impacts on India’s economy: inflation surged into mid‐single digits to high single‐digits; trade volumes with Russia increased from roughly US$13 billion in 2021–22 to about US$27 billion in 2022; India’s wheat production rose (or was forecast to) from around 102 million metric tons in 2021–22 to 107–108 million tons in 2022–23; wheat stocks dropped to about 9.7 million metric tons by early 2024; external trade deficits widened; and GDP growth projections for India were revised down modestly (for example, IMF projecting 6.6% growth vs ~7.2% earlier). These are among the key numbers which show the mix of costs and opportunities the conflict has brought.